WATANI International
23 May 2010
How does the recent signing of an agreement on the use of the Nile waters by four Nile Basin countries, separately from Egypt, affect the country?
The file has been opened at Watani by Abeer Fouad, Iman Hanna, Mariam Adly, Claire Sidqy, Injy Samy, Fady Labib, and Katrine Faragallah
For a fistful of water
Friday 14 May saw four African countries—Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda—sign a new treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile waters, despite strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan. While Kenya issued a support statement of the new framework, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo were not represented at the signing in Entebbe, Uganda.
Egypt and Sudan fear that the new treaty may work to reduce their share of Nile water while the upstream countries want to be able to implement irrigation and hydropower projects in consultation with Egypt and Sudan, but without Egypt being able to exercise the veto power it was given by a 1929 colonial-era treaty with Britain.
The new agreement, the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework, is to replace a 1959 accord between Egypt and Sudan that allocates for Egypt 55.5 billion cubic metres of Nile water and 18.5 billion for Sudan. The two countries have expressed fears that their water supply would be severely reduced if the seven other Nile users divert the river with domestic irrigation and hydropower projects.
“Mistaken action”
The Kenyan prime minister, Raila Odinga, arrived at Cairo yesterday at the head of a high ranking delegation to conduct talks with Egyptian officials, hoping to work to resolve the disagreement between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand, and the upstream countries on the other.
The 6,700-kilometre Nile is a confluence of the White Nile, whose source is Lake Victoria in east Africa, and the Blue Nile that springs from the Ethiopian highlands. The annual Nile flood is the outcome of the summer rains on the Ethiopian plateau. The two Niles join in the Sudanese capital Khartoum to form a single course which flows down through Egypt and into the Mediterranean Sea.
The Nile Basin Initiative, which had been spearheading the talks between the riparian nations, will now become the Nile Basin Commission and will receive, review and approve or reject projects related to Africa’s longest river. It will be based in Addis Ababa and should have representation from all nine Nile basin countries.
Egypt’s State Minister for Legal Affairs Mufid Shehab said the new agreement was “a mistaken action”. “We do not want to view it as a destructive act, but we see it as a mistake that we should work to stop,” he said. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit warned that Cairo’s water rights were a “red line” that should not be crossed.
Marc Franco, who heads the European Union delegation in Egypt urged the seven east African countries not to sign the new deal and to settle differences with Egypt and Sudan first. He said a separate deal would “make the political problems that exist worse”.
For his part, the Sudanese ambassador to Cairo, Abdel Rahman Ser al-Khatm, confirmed to Watani that the same fate awaited both Egypt and Sudan, suggesting an ongoing cooperation of the two countries in order to best resolve the complicated, thorny water issue.
Matter of life or death
“What now?” is the question Egyptians are asking. Egypt’s current quota of Nile water is barely sufficient for its needs. Given the increase in Egypt’s population, the country would face water poverty by 2017 if its quota of Nile water is not boosted to some 71 billion cubic metres. Egypt would, by that time, need some 86 billion cubic metres water supply. The Nile water, for Egypt, is literally a matter of “life or death”.
Minister of Irrigation and water resources, Mohammed Nasreddin Allam, has said that the issue of the Nile water is a national security issue. “I am not a pessimist,” Mr Allam said, however. “There are historical ties between Egypt and Sudan, and the Nile Basin countries.” Egypt, he said, intends to do its best to solve pending problems through negotiations. Egypt also intends to boost its investments in the upstream countries, he said. There are already Egyptian investments there, according to Mr Shehab, and Egypt had, through the Nile Basin Initiative, proposed a package of water projects that would have benefited several riparian nations, including Egypt, and would have been financed by international donors.
Egypt had already signed a number of agreements that involved the Nile water, among which were 1891, 1902, 1906, 1925, 1929, 1959, 1991, and 1993. All of them centred on not implementing any projects on the Nile upstream or its tributaries, that would negatively affect Egypt water quota.
No alternative to cooperation
“The matter ought not to raise undue fears,” Mona Omar, the Foreign Minister’s deputy for African affairs, optimistically said. “Egypt has good relations with the Nile Basin countries in many fields. Disagreement should not lead to boycott or conflicts because, whether in Egypt or in the other Nile countries, we all believe that there is no alternative to ‘cooperation’.
“Egypt never disregarded relations with Nile Basin countries as some like to say, Ms Omar said.. “On the contrary, it has always extended its hand to its African brothers. Through its Egyptian Fund for Technical Cooperation with Africa, Egypt has allocated a full budget to be used for grants and aids to African nations.
“Egypt has established hospitals in Ethiopia, and offered more than 300 training courses in Cairo to people from Nile Basin countries, on such topics as agriculture, irrigation, and power generation and networks.”
Water projects
Since 1925, Egypt has regularly contributed, through technical and financial support, in projects to maintain the water course upstream the Nile and clear it of weeds, as well as in water projects and power generation.
In 1925, Egypt established the Senar dam on the Blue Nile for the benefit of Sudan. In 1937, it financed a power generation project at Jabal al-Awliya’ on the White Nile south of Khartoum. In 1945, it financed the construction of the Owen Falls Dam in Lake Victoria in Uganda, and has contributed to its annual operational expenses. Egyptian engineers are there permanently to supervise the operation of the dam for the benefit of both countries. In 1991, Egypt helped expand the hydroelectric power station at the Owen reservoir.
In 2004, Egypt had dug ten wells in Kenya, within a project to dig 40 wells financed by an Egyptian grant of USD2 million.
A water research centre was established by Egypt in Tanzania and, upon the request of the Congolese government, Egypt is extending technical aid towards developing water management in Congo.
An Egyptian grant of some USD14 million was used in 2004 to clear the lakes Victoria and Kyoga in Uganda and Tanzania of weeds for the benefit of the local fishermen, which have been cleaned up several times. Another USD13.9 million grant was later extended by Egypt for the second phase of the project.
Comprehensive development
According to Adel al-Ghandour, member of the Advisory Council for Nile Basin countries, agricultural projects in Nile Basin countries are good investments because of the abundance of fertile land, especially in Sudan some 250 million feddans of arable land await exploitation. With the gap between food production and consumption in the Arab World reaching some USD18 million and on the rise, Saad Nassar, consultant to the agriculture minister says that planting grain in Sudan may help fill the gap.
Abdel-Fattah Muttawie, head of the Nile water sector at the irrigation ministry, sees that, despite the political instability and border conflicts in several Nile Basin countries, Africa includes some of the greatest water resources in the world. Yet many of its countries suffer from severe shortage of drinking water, food scarcity, and problems of pollution and sanitation.
Solving these problems, in Muttawie’s opinion, can be summed up in one phrase: “comprehensive development”.
Half full or half empty?
Watani explored the Nile water issue with Mahmoud Abu-Zeid, the head of the Arab Council for Water, former Egyptian minister for water resources, and an international expert on the water issue. Dr Abu-Zeid spoke lengthily about the water conflict between Egypt and the Nile basin countries.
Only 5 per cent
Dr Abu-Zeid explained that the Nile meets more than 95 per cent of Egypt’s water needs, while Ethiopia only procures 1 per cent of its water needs from the Nile; Kenya 2 per cent; Tanzania 3 per cent; Congo 1 per cent; Burundi 5 per cent and Sudan 15 per cent.
“We first have to understand some facts about the sources and the mouth of the river,” Dr Abu-Zeid said. “For example, around 1600 billion cubic metres of rain water falls annually in the countries of the Upper Nile; only 5 per cent of this water is exploited. The remaining is simply wasted, since it requires huge funds for optimum utilisation. Needless to say, Egypt on its own cannot assume such a grand project.” The solution, he suggested, is for all riparian countries to collaborate in money and effort to best utilise the excess water.” Riparian countries, he said, should not polarise into two factions: Egypt and Sudan on one side and all the upstream countries on the other. “Collaboration alone can eradicate any conflict,” Dr Abu-Zeid said.
Dr Abu-Zeid confirmed that the last agreement was not the end of the story, commenting that no one could argue with Egypt’s water rights. However he suggested the adoption of a policy that would intensify the dealings and relations with Ethiopia, especially in that it was believed that Addis Ababa was leading the other riparian countries against Egypt and Sudan. Dr Abu-Zeid pointed to the seven agreements signed between the riparian countries since 1891, which focus on never establishing any project on the Nile course or any of its tributaries that would affect Egypt’s share of Nile water.
Investment welcome
Watani also talked to Kenya’s ambassador to Cairo, Daniel Otchinig, who stressed the strength of the relations between Egypt and Kenya, especially on the political and economic fronts. He commented that Egypt’s role in the independence of African countries could never be dismissed. Today, Mr Otchinig said, the trade volume between Egypt and Kenya stands at some USD250 million, and is on the rise. He said that the challenges facing the increasing cooperation between Egypt and Kenya were numerous, especially in the fields of transportation and communication, and only collaborative efforts can help overcome them. “No marine lines connect our two countries,” he said, “which translates into many difficulties in terms of the movement of goods between them.”
Through COMESA, of which both Egypt and Kenya are members, Mr Otchinig believes many obstacles could be overcome. But even on a bilateral note, he said, seven agreements were recently signed between Egypt and Kenya in fields such as trade, education, culture, youth, sports, agriculture, and investment. This is a good step, Mr Otchinig says since, so far, there was no Egyptian investment in Kenya, only commercial exchange.
As to the water issue, the Kenyan ambassador explained that Kenya depended primarily on rain water, only taking 4 per cent of its water from the Nile. In all cases, he said, Kenya did not contribute much to the Nile flow that reached Egypt, the biggest contribution came from the Ethiopian plateau.
Mr Otchinig concluded by inviting Egyptian investors to Kenya where, he said, only 8 per cent of the total area of 582,646 square kilometres of Kenya was cultivated.
Poor chance for Egyptian products
A recent report by CAPMAS showed that Egyptian exports to African countries had increased since 2003 from USD506 million to more than USD3 billion worth of exports in 2009. Yet the challenges that face Egyptian products attempting to reach African markets are numerous; not least among them is the scarcity of regular maritime lines and airlines between Egypt and most African countries. It does not help that deficient railway services contribute to increased transportation costs. EgyptAir flights to countries, such as Ethiopia and Tanzania have recently been cancelled. Transportation fares from Egypt to African countries have long been on the high side, further complicating matters. The monopoly of European and Asian agencies on the African market often drives Egypt out of the competition. The absence of representatives of Egyptian banks in most African countries, as well as the absence of an effective local insurance system to serve Egyptian exporters is another challenge. To improve matters, Egyptian foreign trade agencies should be provided with basic information concerning the African market, which they currently lack. Clear marketing policies, absent at the moment, should be put together to publicise the Egyptian product through different media channels to the African market. The absence of permanent outlets for Egyptian products in African countries is also a problem that needs resolving.
Marketing Egyptian product
The most recent attempt by the Egyptian private sector to support the State’s initiative to further economic ties with African countries, the Egyptian Businessmen Association (EBA) recently founded the Egyptian African Organisation for Development and Investment (EAODI) with a capital investment of EGP100 million. Hussein Sabbour, head of the EBA, told Watani that the organisation aimed at marketing Egyptian investment projects to the Nile basin countries, as well as supporting the Egyptian private sector in its attempts to enter these markets. Mr Sabbour named the sectors contributing in EAODI, which are the banking, transportation, agricultural, livestock, contracting and construction, trade, power, tourism, oil, chemical, information technology, and development and investment sectors. Mr Sabbour said EAODI would probably focus on food production projects in the Nile basin countries, as well as investment and trade ties with Ethiopia.
Mustafa al-Ahwal, a member of the EBA, said that priority would be given to agricultural and livestock projects, as well as industrial projects such as furniture and electrical appliance factories. Projects in the service, transportation, banking and logistics sectors were under consideration.
Hamed al-Sheyati, another member of the EBA, stressed the importance of a permanent Egyptian presence in the African markets, and suggested that Ethiopia could fill the 600,000 tons of meat deficiency in Egypt.