WATANI International
27 March 2011
With the many concerns and questions on Egypt’s quota of the Nile water, and given the recent developments, Watani took the matter to Dr Mahmoud Abou Zeid, International water expert and head of the Arab Water Council, who was recently appointed consultant to the Cabinet on the Nile issue.
What is the impact of the River Nile CFA on Egypt’s water quota?
Egypt’s quota of the Nile water was determined back in the 19th and 20th centuries, according to international treaties. The latest Framework Agreement does not assign quotas, it stipulates that riparian States should cooperate without negatively affecting one other. It also stipulates that a water commission would be formed to study projects to be erected on the Nile basin, especially regarding their benefits and impacts on other riparian countries.
What about Ethiopian Foreign Minister Zenawi’s latest declarations about erecting seven new dams?
The NBI, which instates the legal institutional framework for the bases and regulations that govern cooperation among the riparian States, was signed by all the riparian States in 1999. Since then, 22 Nile projects that benefit various countries have been under study or execution. Among these projects are four dams in Ethiopia, and the NBI—Egypt included—is currently studying them and their prospective impact on other riparian countries.
Is it true that the erection of the Border Dam in Ethiopia would affect Egypt’s water quota?
The Border Dam project, like other projects, is still under preliminary studies. Egypt has looked into these studies and asked for their completion in order to determine the real impact of this project on its water quota. But so far, based on the data we have, water experts have concluded that the erection of the Border Dam would affect Egypt very slightly, and this only during the filling period of its 14 billion cubic metre reservoir. It is not true that this amount of water will be subtracted every year from Egypt’s quota. The Border Dam will mainly be used for power generation not for irrigation purposes.
The NBI has also studied the Karadobi project which would make an additional 14 billion cubic metres of Nile water available to riparian countries, of which 4 billion would go to Egypt. Egypt should try to persuade the other riparian countries to go ahead with the implementation of this project, or both projects simultaneously, so that if one affects our water quota negatively, the other would compensate by giving us more water.
Because of the deep, rock-cut, steep terrain the Blue Nile channels through in the Ethiopian plateau, building dams there was always a far-fetched possibility. Is this true?
It is not far fetched but, technically, it is difficult to construct irrigation water storage projects there. Power generation projects are feasible, however, because in these projects water is stored for a certain period of time until electricity is generated and then the water flows into the river course once more.
So why does Egypt refrain from signing the River Nile CFA?
We agreed to 43 articles of the River Nile CFA, but the problem is that no article ensures Egypt’s historical rights to a fair quota of the Nile waters. Still, there are other agreements which are yet in force that have not cancelled our rights to the historical quota.
What does it mean that Egypt is not a part of the agreement?
It means that when Nile projects, some of which may affect Egypt negatively, are discussed, Egypt would probably know nothing and would have no say about them. So, we must study—technically, politically, and legally—the consequences of not being a part of the agreement.
What action can Egypt take now?
There are many things Egypt can do. First and foremost is dialogue, to reach better understanding. The legal situation concerning treaties between Egypt and the Nile Basin countries should also be discussed. Most of these countries need comprehensive development, and Egypt should lend a helping hand. We should never stand against such projects; rather, we should promote them while ensuring that they serve the interests of Egypt as well as all the other Nile Basin countries.
If Ethiopia decides to build projects on the Blue Nile without Egypt’s approval, will the international donors agree to finance them?
The main donors are the World Bank and African Development Bank, and they are both bound, by international treaties and the 1997 UN law concerning rivers, to offer no financing unless all the Nile Basin countries agree. Other countries such as China, however, are ready to finance projects, regardless.
Egypt may use its diplomatic clout to persuade prospective donors to finance only those projects which the Nile Basin countries unanimously approve.
Does the Arab League have any role to play on the Nile issue?
Egypt and Sudan are Arab League (AL) countries. It is not yet known whether the AL is willing to intervene regarding the Nile file. On the other hand, there are Arab investments in Nile Basin countries including Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. For its part, Egyptian investment in Ethiopia amounts to some USD2 billion.
Would the emergence of the new riparian State of South Sudan threaten Egypt’s water quota?
South Sudan has become a Nile Basin country, and it will have rights to a quota of its waters. This quota should be part of the current 18.5 billion cubic metres of Sudan. As far as Egypt is concerned, most of the new beneficial projects in the Nile Basin are in South Sudan.
Jonglei Canal is one of the new projects in South Sudan, and is promising for Egypt’s future. After 70 per cent of the project was accomplished the work had to be halted in 1983 because of the political unrest there. I hope Jonglei Canal would be completed, the first project in the South.
Some political observers see indications that Israel has been playing a role to threaten Egypt’s Nile water quota. In your opinion, what is Israel’s interest in that?
It is not only Israel; there are other countries who do so. The main objective is to secure for themselves some share in the Nile waters. Other countries wish to exploit to their benefit lucrative trade and industrial opportunities in Nile Basin countries. In all such cases, they stand to gain from weakening relations between Egypt and other riparian countries.
It is a well-known fact that a substantial portion of the Nile waters is lost, unexploited. Is there no way to limit such waste?
Out of a total 1660 billion cubic.metres of annual Nile flow, only five per cent—84 billion cu.m.—comes to Sudan and Egypt; 95 per cent is wasted. The problem is not so much the volume of water as much as it is the projects needed to harness these waters and benefit from them.
Does Egypt have the right to international arbitration?
This is true, but we should find a means for understanding and rapprochement. Egypt possesses strong alternatives, but it will only resort to international arbitration if all the roads are closed.