WATANI International
11 April 2010
Many people are wondering about the possible repercussions on Egypt when South Sudan votes in a referendum in 2011 on whether to secede from the Muslim north.
Some political analysts expect South Sudan to become country number 11 to claim its share of the Nile water, which is ringing alarm bells over the water supply and management. It is expected that the southern tribes will ask for a higher water share, and this will jeapardise Egypt’s security on its southern borders. Other observers believe Egypt has done so much for the South that the water issue will be solved by political agreement.
Egypt, for its part, is keen on co-operation with South Sudan. In addition to existing projects, it has declared the allocation of EGP200 million to implement the first phase of development projects in South Sudan. This includes building four power stations as well as other infrastructure projects in road building, transportation, water, and agriculture.
Choice of the people
President Bashir has said he will respect the choice of the people in South Sudan if they want to separate. He says, however, that they are striving to maintain Sudan’s position as a single country, insisting that separation at the present time would achieve nothing when the world trend is a preference for alliances.
According to Mr Bashir, the South is now governed by its people and their resources. They already have their own leader in the South, the Sudanese vice-president Salva Kiir Mayyardit, who as president of the autonomous government of Southern Sudan makes all major decisions—even in financial matters. Asked about the veracity of the claim that 90 per cent of the people in the South would vote for separation, Mr Bashir said there had been no polls as yet and that therefore the claims were totally inaccurate. Mr Bashir believes that real unity cannot be accomplished without the implementation of vital infrastructure projects.
President Mubarak said his recent meeting with Vice-president Mayardit stressed the importance of making the unity of Sudan a priority. He added that all Egyptian projects in the south should enhance this option.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit pointed out that the Egyptian role is now focused on bringing closer the perspectives of both North and South, with the aim of making unity an attractive option.
He stressed the importance of intensifying efforts aimed at disarming and resettling the armed militias in South Sudan. Mr Abul Gheit expressed concerns over tribal violence and the incident in Warap State, where 140 southerners died. He outlined Egypt’s efforts to bridge the gap between North and South, and the preparations to establish a branch of Alexandria University in Tung in South Sudan.
Sharing the Nile
Joseph Dower, South Sudan’s irrigation minister, will face the water issues if the choice swings the way of separation in the transition period of the peace agreement 2011.
South Sudan officials say that Egypt’s water share will not be affected because it has been offering help to Sudan in the educational and health domains for more than a hundred years. Following the peace agreement in 2005, the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation signed a memorandum of understanding on technical cooperation with South Sudan to implement programmes amounting to USD26.6 million, for five years. Projects involved riverbed purification; conducting the feasibility studies for building the Aqua Dam in Waw, a city in Bahr al-Gazal; maintenance of four water stations ; and digging 30 water wells.
Mr Dower has negated all the claims of South Sudan’s request for a separate share in the Nile Basin, stating that the case for a separate southern water share will be part of the agreement. When asked about the rumour that Israeli experts had visited the South to look at building dams, Mr Dower denied the assertions and added that there were no problems between Egypt and South Sudan since it was never a party to the 50-year civil war.
Egyptian fears
Ambassador Mona Omar, assistant foreign minister for African affairs, says the problem of the Nile Basin was not the lack of water but misuse of it. Egypt had studied carefully all possibilities after the separation of South Sudan from the North, and that Egypt’s bilateral relations were solid in regard to several projects.
Recently, Ms Omar says, Egypt trained journalists from the south to establish a satellite channel, allowing them to air through the Egyptian satellite. Important projects, including that of the Jonglei Canal, which is expected to provide Egypt and Sudan with 3.5 billion cubic metres of water, are ongoing. And Ms Omar believes that Egyptian political and economic intervention has served to counter violence and ensure stability in South Sudan.
Egypt does not back the separation of South Sudan because separation will not solve the underlying problem, but might encourage other tribes or territories to ask for independence, Iglal Ra’fat, head of the African Studies Unit at Cairo University, says. Nubia appears to be already going that path, she says. Egypt is also wary of weapon trafficking and refugee problems along the Sudanese border, which could augment with separation, she says.
Once the South secedes, the North is expected to be a fully fledged Islamic State. What with an Islamist Gaza on the north western border, some analysts believe that another Islamic State on the southern border would constitute a cause of grave concern for Egypt.