Today, I build on the profound analysis offered by American political scientist and international relations scholar Professor John Mearsheimer, which I presented in my editorial last week under the title: “Unipolar global order nears its end”. Equally compelling is the perspective offered by American economist and public policy analyst, Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs who offered a detailed examination of global events and the current shifts in global order, in an episode on his Youtube channel, aired on 27 October, and titled: “NATO’s Worst Nightmare — Russia’s Next Move Shocks the World.” Last week. I denoted Professor Mearsheimer’s view “a long-overdue eye opener”; today I also note Professor Sachs’s view as such. I here print the main highlights of the Professor’s view which highlights a realisation long overdue.
Professor Sachs: “The game just changed, and nobody saw it coming. For decades, we’ve been told one story about Russia, NATO, and the global power struggle unfolding before our eyes… Russia’s next strategic move isn’t what the Pentagon predicted, isn’t what the media’s reporting, and it’s definitely not what NATO prepared for. We’re talking about a calculated shift that could rewrite the entire global order from energy markets to military alliances, from the dollar’s dominance to the very foundation of western influence… The narrative we’re being sold every single night on the evening news is so far removed from the strategic reality on the ground that it’s almost dangerous. We’re living in a moment where perception and reality have divorced completely. And that gap could cost us everything. So let’s talk about what Russia is actually doing right now.
“While western media has been obsessing over battlefield updates and the daily back and forth of territorial gains and losses, Russia has been playing an entirely different game. They’ve been building something that NATO never prepared for, never war gamed, and honestly never believed was possible. We’re talking about a fundamental restructuring of global trade relationships, energy dependencies, and military partnerships that sidesteps the entire western dominated system that’s been in place since World War II.
“Think about what happened when the West decided to unleash the most comprehensive sanctions package in modern history. The assumption was that Russia’s economy would collapse within months. We were told the ruble would become worthless. We were told that Russian citizens would rise up and demand change… Every single one of those predictions has failed to materialise in the way we were promised. Russia spent the last decade preparing for exactly this scenario… They invested heavily in their relationship with China, not just as a trading partner, but as a technological and financial ally. They strengthened ties with India, which despite being the world’s largest democracy, has refused to join western sanctions. They built bridges to the entire global south, countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia that represent the majority of the world’s population and increasingly its economic growth.
“Russia’s next move isn’t military in the traditional sense. It’s about making the dollar less central to global trade. Let me explain why this matters more than almost anything else. The United States has enjoyed what economists call exorbitant privilege for nearly 80 years. Because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Because oil and gas and most commodities are priced in dollars. Because countries need dollars to participate in international trade, America has been able to print money to pay its debts in a way that would destroy any other country’s economy. We’ve been able to run massive trade deficits and government deficits because the whole world needs our currency. That advantage has allowed us to fund our military, our social programmes, our entire way of life at a level that wouldn’t otherwise be possible.
“But what happens when countries start trading in their own currencies? What happens when Russia sells oil to India in rupees and Chinese yuan instead of dollars? What happens when China and Brazil conduct trade without touching the dollar at all? What happens when Saudi Arabia, our longtime ally in the Middle East, starts accepting yuan for oil sales to China? Each one of these developments chips away at dollar dominance… The BRICS nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have been actively working on alternative payment systems and discussing a common currency for trade among themselves. Just recently, several other countries have expressed interest in joining this block. We’re talking about Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Argentina. If even half of these countries create a parallel trading system that bypasses the dollar, the economic implications for the United States are genuinely catastrophic.
“Now, NATO’s nightmare isn’t just about economics, though that’s a huge part of it. The nightmare is that Russia has fundamentally altered its military doctrine in response to western strategy, and the implications are terrifying. For decades, NATO operated under certain assumptions about how a great power conflict would unfold. There were red lines, escalation ladders, and mutual understandings about what was off the table.… They [Russia] have signalled, not subtly but quite clearly, that they view certain types of western military support to Ukraine as direct NATO involvement in the conflict.” In fact, Russia has gambled on the fracturing of European unity and the rebellion of its people against their ruling regimes, seeking an end to their economic suffering. Here, Russia proved its ability to withstand and transcend sanctions far beyond what western analysts predicted. Russia went far beyond the limits of European countries’ patience, endurance, and sacrifice.
“Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal,” Professor Sachs warned. “They’ve recently suspended participation in arms control treaties. They’ve conducted drills practicing nuclear strikes. Their military doctrine now explicitly includes scenarios for nuclear weapon use that go beyond simple deterrence of existential threats. Putin has made thinly veiled threats about nuclear response options and we’re in a situation where NATO is providing weapons that are being used to strike targets inside Russian territory. This is an incredibly dangerous combination of factors. During the Cold War, there were well-established protocols, hotlines, and mutual understandings about how to prevent accidental escalation. Many of those guard rails no longer exist. Communication between Moscow and Washington is minimal, trust is non-existent. and we’re in uncharted territory regarding the rules of engagement in this conflict. The possibility of miscalculation leading to nuclear use, whether intentional or accidental, is higher than it’s been in decades.
“So, where does this all lead? What’s the endgame? Unfortunately, the most likely scenarios are not particularly comforting. One possibility is that the conflict in Ukraine eventually reaches a stalemate that neither side can break, leading to a frozen conflict with a heavily militarised border and no formal peace treaty… Another possibility is that western support gradually declines as economic and political costs mount, forcing Ukraine to accept a settlement on terms far worse than what could have been achieved earlier. That would be a massive geopolitical defeat for the West and would embolden challenges to American power globally. The worst possibility is continued escalation, potentially drawing NATO into direct conflict with Russia with all the catastrophic risks that entails… We’re playing a very dangerous game with stakes that could affect the entire future of human civilisation.”
The painful, shocking truth that must be faced, according to Prof. Sachs is that “the world is changing faster than our mental models can keep up with”. And this is because of stubbornness and denial.
Watani International
14 November 2025
