As we follow the developments of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, which is being framed as a US-Iran war, we must carefully consider many factors that shape the plot of this conflict. These include the strategic expectations surrounding the possible sequence of events regarding both the historical and military dimensions of the conflict. In this context, I today present the content of a significant interview that took place between seasoned political commentator, Professor Glenn Diesen, and American strategic expert Colonel Douglas McGregor. The interview was aired on 21 April 2026 under the title: “Iran negotiations are a hoax – U.S. Prepares for ‘Total War’”. Col Mcgregor, 79, is a retired US Army colonel, combat veteran, and former senior advisor to the US Secretary of Defense. Prof. Diesen, 46, is a Norwegian political scientist and commentator, and a professor at the Department of Business, History and Social Sciences at the University of South-Eastern Norway. Following are the main highlights of the interview.
Col McGregor: “I think the notion that we were going to hold talks again in Islamabad was always fiction; there was no evidence for any Iranian interest in doing so. The last talks were disappointing. The Iranians showed up with 70 people, large quantities of data, information, maps and so forth in the expectation that there was an intention to negotiate and come up with some sort of mutually agreeable solution. There wasn’t. And when you have someone like Vice President Vance getting up during the meeting to go outside and take a call from Mr Netanyahu, it suggests that these are not really negotiations… So, I think President Trump was trying to calm the markets again.
“We think the Iranians have perhaps 45,000 to 50,000 unmanned systems remaining, maybe more. They certainly have somewhere between 15,000 to 20,000 maybe some more missiles. I would say that that is more than an adequate supply to sustain Iran through several weeks… When you turn to our side… whether or not we have anything left to put on the ground, I don’t know. It could be that we would bring in whatever is left around the world. But my point is I think the Iranians are in a better position than we are.
“If you stop and consider that the ingredients for your fertiliser, about 50 per cent of these things, urea, nitrogen, phosphate, and so forth, 50 per cent of it comes out of the Persian Gulf, and you’re going to destroy this infrastructure. I think we’re looking down the line at famine across the global south… Apparently, Britain is going to run out of anything in about two weeks in terms of both jet fuel and heating fuel. And of course, all these countries in Western Europe that have gone crazy on the green energy business are in terrible positions… I think what you’re going to see happen in Europe now, governments are going to be overthrown; you’re going to see new governments come to power.”
Regarding indications of the emergence of a new power in the region after the US has failed the Arab Gulf countries, Col McGregor said: “If anybody does go in there, I would say it would probably be China because right now the sort of global safe area for cash and money is increasingly going to be China, not the United States. And I think that’s where things are headed. If you look at just the credit markets, people are going to go to China to borrow, not coming to the United States. And I think the petro dollar is already dead. Whether or not the yuan replaces it is anybody’s guess. Probably could, but it may be a basket of currencies.
“The ideal outcome frankly at this stage would be to simply end this series of hostilities and put a stop to the whole thing and admit that we cannot employ our military power to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz. What the Iranians have got, they’re going to keep. And it’s up to the rest of the world once this war ends to sit down with Iran and work out something similar to the Montreux Convention which was created in 1926 and put the Turks in charge of the Dardanelles. By the way, the Turks have handled that very well; there haven’t been any problems there. A similar convention can be set up.”
Watani International
1 May 2026
