Problems on hold
The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) is currently conducting a census the results of which are eagerly awaited by all. The figures should reveal data relevant to Egypt’s demographic composition and real estate wealth. Once accurate data and numbers are at hand, planners can work on future development schemes.
CAPMAS has been consistently providing digital output related to the demographic composition of Egypt. Digital screens visible on the façade of CAPMAS headquarters on Cairo’s Salah Salem Street reveal various demographic data such as the total number of the Egyptian population updated by the minute, numbers of males and females, and figures of the employed and unemployed. However, it is data unannounced or unrevealed by CAPMAS that is eagerly awaited by large sectors of Egyptians. Topping the list of unannounced data is the number of Copts.
I received a recent letter by my friend Maged Attiya, the economy writer who over the years has enriched Watani’s pages with his weekly column and articles. Mr Attiya’s letter reads:
“General Abu-Bakr al-Guindy, Head of CAPMAS, has always been keen to stress that the agency is not committed to announce the number of Copts. Since citing an individual’s religion in the census is optional; the census figures do not represent the actual number [of Copts].” According to Mr Attiya, CAPMAS is complying with recommendations by a UN sub-committee that, in regions where part of the population suffers from segregation or discrimination, the demographic composition should not be announced basing on religion. The US, Canada, Australia, England, France, Italy, and the rest of the European Union did not abide by this recommendation; also a number of Arab countries that include Algeria, Maghreb and Lebanon. In March 2011, Mr Attiya writes, the weekly State-owned al-Ahram al-Arabi reported that the Coptic population in 2010 was recorded at 18.5 million. Today, seven years later, Mr Attiya estimates this number to run in the range of 20 million. “To Copts and Muslims equally I say: Insist on stating your religion among the census data. Do not overlook it, because it records the religious diversity and plurality of Egypt, and entrenches the idea that on the soil of this land dwells a diverse nation that fuses into a single citizenship. This fact works to block the road before extremists and enemies of the nation [who desire to divide it into religious factions],” Mr Attiya concluded.
I asked permission of Mr Attiya to publish his letter here in order to comment on a number of ideas cited in it.
- In form, Mr Attiya’s call is rather tardy, since it comes with the public census already halfway through. Even if we assume Egyptians would respond positively to his call, there will always remain doubts that the final number of Copts in the census is not accurate, given that some had not recorded their religion at the outset of the census.
- Mr Attiya mentioned a number of States that did not comply with the UN recommendation, overlooking the fact that the recommendation was directed to States whose citizens suffer segregation and discrimination on a religious basis; this is not the case in many of the States he mentioned.
- Some Egyptians interested in the number of Copts have repeatedly cited various figures that ranged from 10 million to 20 million—some even went above the 20 million mark. These figures were attributed to sources such as institutions, public figures, books and others, but no one offered any detail about the scientific method that yielded these figures, casting thus doubts on their reliability. CAPMAS remains the only authority assigned with conducting an official census and announcing its results. We cannot rush to explain off CAPMAS’s keenness to maintain the religion data in the census optional as a conspiracy to conceal the real number of Copts, or as wariness of announcing it.
- Why the insistence on putting an official figure to the number of Copts at the time when many believe they already have the answer, even if through unreliable figures? Would they believe an official figure that might be less than the one they claim, or would they reel in rage and accuse the State of concealing the truth?
- What benefit is there from brooding over the number of Copts while Egypt faces innumerable challenges on the national level? We have already taken firm steps towards establishing equality based on citizenship alone regardless of religion, and have entrenched this in our Constitution. On 30 June 2013 Egyptians put religious identity aside and joined hands to overthrow the oppressive one-year-old post-Arab Spring Islamist regime; they consolidated a national coalition which they can now ill-afford to jeopardise. So why should they behave as though they intend to divide their country along a religious fault line that defines their numbers?
- I agree with Mr Attiya that entrenching diversity and plurality paves the road towards a wholesome Egyptian nation and full citizenship rights. However I fear for Egypt should we rush with this step while still recovering from post-Arab Spring attempts to tear the nation apart and bury the concept of citizenship.
Watani International
30 April 2017
