When Donald Trump started his second term as US President last January, he inherited numerous international crises that shattered global peace and economy. The world has been closely observing with interest and trepidation his stances, choices, and policies vis-a-vis these crises and wars, in view of strategic priorities.
It must be said that subsequent former US administrations are in no way innocent of creating and fuelling up most of these crises. The current US administration thus inherited a gruesome legacy that is cornering it into containing the crises in order to avoid blowing up the global order that has been so disturbed owing to US policies and conspiracies.
A quick look at the current state of the world clearly shows the magnitude of crisis that President Trump is facing. This includes crises pertaining to NATO; the Middle East including Israel and Palestine; the war in Ukraine; and China and the power struggle in East Asia.
I do not here speak about crises that were crafted by Trump on his arrival at the White House, through his reckless rush to fire shocking statements and make enemies out of those who were once his allies; this includes Canada, Mexico, Panama and Denmark. Such positions are but “Trumpish adventurism” that can wait for now.
As I mentioned in previous editorials, I am keen to present opinions expressed by renown international political analysts and experts whenever I touch upon world politics. Today, I introduce an opinion expressed by John Mearsheimer concerning the issues that President Trump is facing. Professor Mearsheimer, 77, belongs to the realist school of thought; he is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago.
Regarding the Russia Ukraine War, Professor Mearsheimer said: “Donald Trump and everybody at the top of his administration knows full well what the Russian demands are. The fact that Trump has said that a deal can be worked out means that we know what the demands [by Russia and by Ukraine] are and we’re going to meet those demands; this includes the crazy idea of peacekeepers and security guarantees which is unacceptable, and Trump has de facto accepted that… I think when you look at the administration and you look at what’s going on in the foreign policy realm, you have to distinguish between what’s happening behind closed doors the actual decision-making process and what’s happening out in public… The public debate is sort of a wild and crazy one, in large part because Trump is free to say whatever he wants… We end up in all these debates about what he really means, and is he contradicting himself? I’ve gotten to the point where I just don’t pay that much attention to what he says in public. The question is what are they saying in private? And I believe in private they know what has to be said; they have already said it at least once to the Russians, and now the details have to be worked out… [The US realises that] Ukraine has to be a genuinely neutral State; it can’t be in NATO, there can be no western security guarantees which basically add up to de facto membership in NATO…
“Point two is that the West and Ukraine have to accept the fact that Russia has annexed those four oblasts, plus that’s non-negotiable… Putin is the one who has all the leverage, so I think you’re going to get the deal that Putin has basically articulated on June 14th… I think that Trump must understand very clearly what the Russian demands are, and that he must have conveyed to the Russians that we will accept those demands.”
In a previous editorial, I explained the history of NATO, and how the US founded it in the aftermath of World War II, when it pledged to defend western European countries, leaving to them the task of reconstruction, and recovering their economies. But today, almost 75 years later, and after the US has repeatedly demanded western European countries to shoulder the expenses and burdens of NATO, under President Trump, the US is actually hinting at its intentions to withdraw its forces from European NATO countries. According to Professor Mearsheimer: “The Europeans are greatly fearful that we’re leaving the continent, we’re not going to put troops in Ukraine; Trump has made it clear that there is going to be no American security guarantee… There are going to be no troops in Ukraine… Not going to be British and French troops in Ukraine either; there’re not going to be any troops from the West physically located in Ukraine, because if they’re put there, the Russians will target them and kill them. The question is, let’s assume that Putin and Trump work out a deal, what happens then with the Ukrainians and the Europeans? I think probably Trump can coerce the Europeans; he has a lot of cards to play with the Europeans… He can get them on board. But the Ukrainians are a different matter it’d be very difficult to get them to accept the parameters of the deal that appears to be on the table… Then the Ukrainians are pretty much on their own up against the Russians; it’s really Bambi versus Godzilla. The best solution is to create a neutral Ukraine that doesn’t threaten Russia, and then have Ukraine do everything it can to have decent relations with Russia…
“Number two, you do not want to underestimate the amount of contempt that Trump has for the Europeans, and you also don’t want to underestimate how anxious he is to greatly reduce if not eliminate our commitment to Europe… So if he had a serious opportunity to pull the United States out of Europe or at least American troops out of Europe, he might just jump at it… What Europeans are doing is being very nice to President Trump, and telling him that they will make certain concessions here and there… So they can stay in the good graces of President Trump and keep the American pacifier over their head.”
Regarding the Israel and Palestine issue, Mr Mearsheimer said: “Netanyahu may be gloating now, but he would think long and hard as many Israelis and their supporters should think about where this country is headed… This is not good, the Israelis just do what they want and again the United States and the Europeans will back them no matter what… Israel has become a pariah State… [Trump] believes that he’s going to turn the Gaza Strip into the Riviera of the Middle East… You want to remember the IDF is in many ways a spent force… I believe this is the principal reason that you got to cease fire on January 19th, and one of the principal reasons you’re likely to get a second phase is because the IDF is not interested in starting the war up again…
“I think that the Saudis are at a point now where it’s almost impossible to imagine them backing off from their demand that there’ll be a Palestinian State before you have an Abraham Accord… They want a Palestinian State in the West Bank and in Gaza with a capital being East Jerusalem.”
Speaking of China and the power struggle in East Asia, Mr Mearsheimer said: “China has grown more powerful economically, it’s turned a lot of that economic might into military might… They’re beginning to throw their weight around, they’re acting much the way the United States acts… You should expect China to get more powerful, to build the Blue Water Navy with a lot of power projection capability… It’s going to try to send signals to the Australians and the Filipinos that we’re in charge here… The Chinese are not a status quo power; they want to dominate the South China Sea… They are interested in dominating East Asia, just the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere.”
Watani International
21 March 2025
