As the Omani sponsored and mediated negotiations between the US and Iran command the attention of the whole world, another substantial development unfolds in North America involving Canada and the US. This development did not surprise me, given that I have been following up on and writing about the ongoing power struggle between the two countries ever since US President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and overreached to declare that Canada should be the 51st state of the US. This move provoked strong sentiment and national pride in Canada, a sovereign and independent nation, and threatened decades of stable political and economic relations between the two countries.
In this context, I wrote two weeks ago reviewing US-Canada relations over a century, highlighting persistent US policies to impose its hegemony over Canada and deal with it as a mere subordinate serving US interests. In fact, Canada has always been a close ally and partner to the US politically, economically, commercially and strategically, a partner no US administration could do without.
Yet the Arabic proverb reminds us that the winds may blow contrary to a ship’s desire. Following Trump’s declaration questioning Canada’s sovereignty which I described in a previous editorial as the “final blow”, it came as no surprise that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced during the World Economic Forum in Davos last January, the first signs of Canada distancing itself from the US. Mr Carney announced that Canada has signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement with China. Not only that, he also called on “middle powers” to act together in order to face future challenges and opportunities, “because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu”, he said.
Matters did not stop at this first round which experts considered to represent the start of Canadian defiance to US overreach. News of tense exchanges between the two countries some two weeks ago in the White House made headlines. President Trump pressed Canada’s Prime Minister into renewing the Free Trade Agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada which had gone into effect in July 2020. In the process, Mr Trump presented Mr Carney with “a deeply humiliating proposal” that was tantamount to a Canadian surrender to US hegemony. Mr Carney directly left the White House and flew back to his country. Canada then sent a statement to the US Department of State informing of its withdrawal from the review process of the agreement. The response of Canadian Prime Minister to Mr Trump’s provocations was devoid of theatrics, yet displayed great shrewdness, composure and self-confidence, in defence of Canada’s dignity.
Today, I present excerpts from a significant analysis of the US-Canada issue which has rapidly moved to the forefront of global events. The analysis is by American political commentator Rachel Maddow, 52, hostess of the political news programme that bears her name on MS Now. Ms Maddow said:
“If you look at what is happening between Washington and Ottawa right now, it does not look like diplomacy. It looks like a breakup, a messy, expensive, dangerous breakup unfolding in real time. For 58 years, the border between Canada and the United States was the longest undefended line in the world. It was not just geography; it was an economic engine. It was the backbone of North American stability. And for decades, it was the one relationship global markets assumed would never fracture… until this morning. Because just hours ago, something happened that was supposed to be unthinkable. Cameras were waiting in the Rose Garden… Donald Trump was prepared to announce what he believed would be another victory, another moment where Canada, under pressure, would bend. But the other podium stayed empty. Mark Carney didn’t show up.
“He didn’t sign the paper, he didn’t offer a counter proposal… Instead, he boarded a plane, flew back to Ottawa and issued a statement… Trump thought he had Canada cornered. He thought he had all the leverage. Carney didn’t blink… Trump walked into the final meeting with a demand that crossed a line. He didn’t just want better terms, he wanted control. A sunset clause that would allow the United States to cancel the deal unilaterally every single year… He gave Carney an ultimatum, sign by noon or face a universal 31 per cent tariff on every Canadian product starting Monday.
“Trump treats nations like contractors… But Mark Carney isn’t a contractor. He’s a central banker, a strategist, a man who spent decades in rooms where power is measured not in slogans but in capital flows, supply chains, and leverage. And Carney understands something Trump forgot, you cannot bully the country that supplies your energy, builds your industrial inputs, and sits at the centre of your manufacturing ecosystem. Carney’s response wasn’t a tweet, it wasn’t a tantrum. It was silence…Washington realised they pushed too hard and the one ally they rely on most just walked away.
“Some viewers may think this is politics… But look at the evidence. Three receipts make that clear. First, Trump demanded total access to Canada’s Arctic waters, dismantling dairy supply management within 54 days, and threatened section 232 national security actions against Canadian aluminium if Ottawa refused. This wasn’t negotiation, it was surrender terms.
“Second, the markets. Normally, when trade tensions spike, the Canadian dollar drops. Investors flee into the US dollar. But today, the opposite happened. The Canadian dollar ticked upward. Why? Because investors are betting against Trump; they see Carney’s move as strength…
“Third, the border. Reports are already emerging from the Ambassador Bridge, the busiest trade crossing in North America. Trucks slowing, inspections intensifying, cargo delays. That is code for pressure. Trump is squeezing the border immediately, trying to force Canada back to the table. But Canada isn’t scrambling. They are diverting. Rail shipments through Vancouver and Montreal are being prioritised toward Europe and Asia… While Trump tries to close the door, Carney is opening windows to the rest of the world. And that is what should terrify Washington.
“Trump tweeted, ‘Canada is treating us very badly, very unfair. We will charge them big tariffs’… That is the sound of a man who just realised he pulled the pin on a grenade and forgot to throw it. And the deeper problem is that Trump is fighting a trade war from the 1980s… He doesn’t understand that this is about energy, minerals, and the infrastructure of modern life. Canada supplies more than half of the oil the United States imports… If Ottawa restricts flows or adds export taxes, gas prices spike overnight in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan; ‘America first’ does not work when the cost of fuel becomes the punishment.
“And Carney knows that… He is a former central banker. He ran the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England. He has spent his career looking at power not as theatre, but as systems. He doesn’t yell, he calculates… [He knows] that Canada cannot afford to remain permanently dependent on a partner that has become unpredictable. Carney knew this moment would come… So for the last three years, Canada has been quietly building a safety net, critical mineral security agreements with Europe, long-term energy partnerships with Japan, expanded Indo-pacific trade routes, Canada positioning itself not as America’s supplier, but as a global resource superpower.
“So where does this go now? Scenario A is the cooling off period. Wall Street panics so hard that Trump is forced to call Carney back… Trump declares victory, claiming he saved the deal, while Carney returns home knowing he held the line… Scenario B is the trade war. Trump follows through. A universal 22 per cent tariff begins Monday. Canada retaliates, but not blindly. Carney will not tariff everything, he will target what hurts Trump’s voters most… Scenario C is the full breakup. This is the nightmare. Trump declares a national emergency. He invokes security powers. He freezes assets. He seizes leverage. Carney responds by redirecting energy exports, restricting critical mineral flows, accelerating trade corridors toward Europe and Asia. USMCA is formally dissolved. North America becomes two rival economic zones.
“Usually in moments like this, leaders calm it down. They pick up the phone, they deescalate. But Trump doesn’t do calm. And Carney has decided he is done waiting for Trump to grow up.
“This accelerates multi polarity… The real question is whether North America is about to enter a new age, one defined not by partnership but by rivalry. History is moving fast, and this may be the week the old North American order finally breaks.”
Watani International
20 February 2026
